West Pacific Remains Active, Watching the SE Coast Next Week

West Pacific

We begin our look around the Northern Hemisphere tropics with a focus on the West Pacific, which is by far the most active basin right now, with 07W (Mekkhala) and 08W (Higos) named, and another invest (95W) further east with a good chance to develop and intensify (Figure 1).

Mekkhala has been struggling with shear and weakened significantly, and along with Higos will soon be swept up in the mid-latitude westerlies and be absorbed (Figure 2).

95W seems to have the potential to be a strong system in the medium range. The 1000-member Google Deepmind ensemble (Figure 3) shows a mean peak intensity around 120 knots. It is worth noting that it seemed to be a little too aggressive with Mekkhala in the early stages, so we’ll see if that repeats for this system. The median TC genesis time from DeepMind is about a week away, so development is not necessarily imminent, though it looks likely.

The environment for this system appears to be favorable for intensification, with ridging overhead and light upper winds (Figure 4), so it’s not surprising to see models generally showing significant intensification at some point. We’ll have to monitor and see when exactly it becomes a TC and how the structure evolves.

East Pacific

The East Pacific has one Invest, 94E, at the moment. Models generally don’t show much development as it moves off to the west-northwest (Figure 5). Google DeepMind is showing another potential system developing a little further southwest in about 5-7 days, though the signal is not as robust as for 95W at this point.

Atlantic

The Atlantic remains generally quiet for now, though there may be one feature worth watching next week. Models show a trough/front moving off the East Coast and stalling over the Western Atlantic (Figure 6).

A few models, including Google DeepMind, are showing a slight chance of tropical development from this stalled front (Figure 7). This is actually one of the few areas where storms historically have been able to form during high-end El Niños like the current one, and waters East of Florida are warmer than normal, so it’s worth monitoring.

As the trough moves out, an upper ridge will nose in over the East Coast (Figure 8). Upper-level winds will be fairly light and favorable under the ridge, though there could be some northerly shear and subsidence on its Eastern flank. Chances of TC genesis will probably depend on where a disturbance forms (if at all) and how much time it has over water.

We’ll check back in soon as these systems evolve - stay safe everyone!