West Pacific is Busy, Atlantic and East Pacific Quiet for Now: AI Models Discussion 8-5-2026

  • Andy Hazelton
    Andy Hazelton

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West Pacific is Busy, Atlantic and East Pacific Quiet for Now: AI Models Discussion 8-5-2026

West Pacific

Today’s AI models discussion will focus mostly on the West Pacific, which is the only basin with an active TC at this point. Typhoon Dolphin is moving West-northwest south of Japan. This system has been around for many days, and is continuing its long trek towards East Asia. The inner core rebounded over the weekend after multiple eyewall replacement cycles, but has since weakened some. The storm should continue west and make landfall somewhere along the coast of NE China (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Google DeepMind 1000-member forecast for Typhoon Dolphin initialized at 06 UTC August 5, 2026 and valid at 06 UTC August 9, 2026. Figure from www.tcatlas.org.

After Dolphin, models show the West Pacific potentially staying busy (Figure 2). There is another system, Tropical Storm Kujira, near the Philippines. It looks to be pulled east in the large monsoonal circulation to the south of Dolphin (Figure 3). We may also see another TC develop from the broad low pressure area southeast of Japan (Invest 96W), and the monsoon trough looks to stay active over the next week or two.

Figure 2: Google DeepMind 50-member ensemble forecasts of TC tracks and intensity over the West Pacific initialized at 06 UTC August 5, 2026, valid out to 360h. Data from Google.
Figure 3: AIFS forecast of 10-meter wind and MSLP initialized at 06 UTC August 5, 2026 and valid at 06 UTC August 9, 2026.

East Pacific

There are currently no active TCs in the East and Central Pacific. However, models are indicating that we could see development in the ITCZ to the South and East of Hawaii (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Google DeepMind 50-member ensemble forecasts of TC tracks and intensity over the East Pacific initialized at 06 UTC August 5, 2026, valid out to 360h. Data from Google.

Current forecasts indicate that a ridge will develop to the north of any potential TC (Figure 5), which would generally tend to push it west away from Hawaii. However, this is still a ways out so it will be worth monitoring.

Figure 5: AIFS forecast of 500-hPa height and anomalies initialized at 06 UTC August 5, 2026 and valid at 06 UTC August 13, 2026.

Atlantic

The Atlantic is also quiet for now. There are some slight signals for possible development in the Central Atlantic over the next week or two from waves moving off the coast of Africa (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Google DeepMind 50-member ensemble forecasts of TC tracks and intensity over the Atlantic initialized at 06 UTC August 5, 2026, valid out to 360h. Data from Google.

The overall signal is still fairly weak, however. Several obstacles to development will be present. This includes dry air from the Saharan Air layer on the north side of the main development region (Figure 7), and a large tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) over the Southwest Atlantic and Caribbean (Figure 8), which is a classic El Niño pattern. So while development chances may increase a little as we head into the climatologically busier part of the Atlantic season, it will be difficult for anything to maintain itself and intensify.

Figure 7: AIFS forecast of total column water, MSLP, and 850-hPa wind initialized at 00 UTC August 5, 2026 and valid at 00 UTC August 13, 2026.
Figure 8: GraphCast forecast of 250-hPa wind initialized at 00 UTC August 5, 2026 and valid at 00 UTC August 16, 2026.

We’ll keep an eye on things as these potential systems evolve, and be back with another update soon!

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