The Southwest Pacific Heats Up. ENSO implications? AI Models Discussion 1-7-2026

With the Southern Hemisphere cyclone season in swing, we’ll take a look at possible activity in the coming days and weeks. The currently-active storm is Cyclone Jenna over the South Indian Ocean, though it is falling apart and forecast to dissipate soon. The strongest signal for potential development is over the Maritime Continent region to the northeast of Australia (Figure 1).

Interestingly, DeepMind is also suggesting the possibility of a second “twin” TC forming north of the equator in the Western Pacific east of the Philippines. January TCs in this region are rare but not unprecedented, such as Tropical Depression Amang in 2019. Helping to spark these possible TCs is a pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast to amplify across the West Pacific, bringing large-scale rising and low pressure to the region (Figure 2).

One other consequence of this pattern is the likelihood of yet another Westerly Wind Burst (WWB), with trade winds slowing across the Western Pacific and potentially even flipping to actual westerly winds (Figure 3). This will likely help to terminate the ongoing La Niña event and potentially propel the climate state towards El Niño by summer. It will be worth watching to see just how strong and persistent this WWB is.