TCs Could form on Both Sides of Mexico and Threaten Land: AI Models Discussion 10-5-2026
Today we are going to look at two potential systems, one to the South of Mexico and one in the Bay of Campeche, both of which could form and threaten land over the next week or so.
East Pacific
Hurricane Rachel is winding down over the East Pacific, and it looks like another system will likely form to the south of Mexico behind it (Figure 1). This area of interest is currently classified as Invest 92E.
The 1000-member Google DeepMind ensemble (Figure 2) shows TC formation in about 3-4 days, and many of the members eventually show a landfall threat to the coast of Mexico as the TC recurves to the NE. There is also a signal for intensification, with a median intensity just below 100 knots.
The environment looks generally favorable for intensification of 92E, with a large anticyclone aloft creating a low shear environment for several days (Figure 3). Upwelling of cool water below the surface by Polo and Rachel means that the sea surface temperatures are not as extreme as they were a few weeks ago, though still plenty warm to support development and intensification.
This will definitely be something to watch closely for potential impacts in Mexico down the line. Outflow from 92E could also have an impact on development over the Gulf, which we will discuss next.
Atlantic
The main system to watch in the Atlantic is Invest 92L, which is located in the Bay of Campeche just off the coast of Mexico. It is forecast to drift East over the next couple of days, and eventually lift North towards the Gulf coast, potentially intensifying as it does so (Figure 4).
The 1000-member Google DeepMind ensemble forecast for this system (Figure 5) shows a strong signal for development, with TC genesis on over 90% of members. The median TC genesis timing is in about 2-3 days as it moves out over the Bay of Campeche.
There is a wide intensity spread for this system, with many members keeping it as a TS but quite a few also showing it becoming a hurricane, and some showing rapid intensification into a major hurricane. This spread is likely because the environment is somewhat marginal. There will be a lot of upper-level divergence with a jet streak right-entrance-region to the north of the system, and another outflow channel to the south (Figure 6). However, there will also be shear from the west due to outflow from the anticyclone over 92E in the Pacific. The stronger 92E is, the higher the shear is likely to be over 92L in the Gulf.
In addition to the shear, some continental dry air lurking to the west (upshear) of the system could slow down the intensification process (Figure 7).
Which of these competing factors proves most dominant will likely tell us which intensity solution wins out. Either way, the system will likely be starting to undergo extratropical transition as it approaches the Northern Gulf, and the associated precipitation will be focused on the north and east sides of the system (Figure 8).
We’ll be back with another update soon as these systems evolve. Definitely keep an eye on things if you live along the Northern Gulf Coast or along the West Coast of Mexico, and check the National Hurricane Center website for the latest!