Several Systems to Watch Across the Globe: AI Models Discussion 10-19-2026

We will take a look at AI model forecasts for several systems across the Northern Hemisphere, starting with the first look at the Indian Ocean in a while.

North Indian Ocean

The post-monsoon fall and early winter is typically the peak for cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean, and right on schedule, models are starting to hint at a possible system forming in the Bay of Bengal over the next week or so (Figure 1).

The environment looks like it could support a strong TC, with light easterly upper-level winds and a jet streak to the north aiding outflow (Figure 2). This will be one to watch closely in Eastern India and Bangladesh.

West Pacific

The main system of note in the West Pacific is Typhoon Champi, which is moving westward in the general direction of Taiwan. It intensified after an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday, and seems to be starting another ERC now, but the environment still supports a very large and powerful hurricane. There’s an interesting model split, with dynamical models mostly taking the storm into Taiwan while AI models are trending towards a turn to the north and a possible impact on southern Japan (Figure 3).

There are still a few AI models hinting at a threat to Taiwan. For example, while AIFS shows the storm recurving as the ridge to the north breaks down (Figure 4), FourCastNet-v3 shows the ridge staying stronger and pushing the system west into Taiwan (Figure 5). It will be interesting to see if models come into better agreement soon.

Behind Champi, models are indicating there could be yet another typhoon in the vicinity of the Mariana Islands in the coming week or two, as this year’s historic El Niño continues to fuel Pacific activity.

East Pacific

The East Pacific also remains active. While Trudy has weakened to a tropical storm, models indicate that yet another system (EP94) has a chance to become a TC to the south of Mexico (Figure 6), with models indicating that it could strengthen quickly at some point.

It is possible that the system will encounter westerly shear (Figure 7) at some point, which is why some models and ensemble members still keep it weak.

The shear looks to be lighter if the system recurves to the NE more quickly, which would also put the coast of Mexico more at risk. One thing to consider, however, is that this track would also take it over a “cold wake” of cooler SST upwelled by Hurricanes Polo, Rachel, Simon, and Trudy (Figure 8). This could ultimately limit its intensity somewhat, though Mexico should definitely keep a close eye on it.

Atlantic

Out of all the Northern Hemisphere basins, the Atlantic is the most quiet, thanks to the effects of the strong El Niño that has dominated this entire season. However, models are still showing a coastal low forming off the East Coast over the next few days (Figure 9).

This system will start off as non-tropical, with clear temperature gradients present for the next several days (Figure 10). If it is able to sit over the Gulf Stream for a few days and generate some core convection, we could see a subtropical system develop. This system currently has a 40% chance of development in the next 7 days from the National Hurricane Center. Regardless of the exact classification, strong NE winds and coastal flooding will affect the East Coast in the coming days.

We’ll keep an eye on these systems and be back with another update soon!