Pacific Active Across the Basin, a Slight Chance of Some Atlantic Development: AI Models Discussion 7-13-2026

We’ll go across much of the Northern Hemisphere today, looking at AI model forecasts for development chances in each basin.

West Pacific

With Bavi moving inland, there are currently no active TCs in the West Pacific. There are a couple of invest disturbances, however (99W and 97W), and Google DeepMind suggests there could be more development near or just west of the Mariana Islands (Figure 1).

The overall environment continues to be favorable for West Pacific development, with westerly wind anomalies and rising motion enhanced due to El Niño. Models show the potential for a broad low to spin up in about a week’s time (Figure 2), with the potential for intensification thereafter. We’ll likely see additional opportunities for West Pacific development in the coming weeks.

East Pacific

After a quiet period, the East (and Central) Pacific looks to be waking up, with several areas across the basin being monitored for development by the National Hurricane Center. Google DeepMind also highlights this possibility, with a strong signal for multiple TCs to develop and potentially also intensify significantly (Figure 3).

With an ongoing Westerly Wind Burst and reduced trades across much of the Pacific due to the growing El Niño, the Pacific ITCZ could break down into multiple areas of vorticity (spin) over the next week or two (Figure 4). We could even see some development in the Central Pacific to the Southwest of Hawaii. That particular system will likely stay well away from the islands, but It’s possible that Hawaii will have to keep an eye out for one of the East Pacific TCs or others down the road this year.

Atlantic

The Atlantic remains generally quiet, as we would expect both at this time of year and also during an El Niño season. However, models do hint at the possibility of some development in the Gulf or Southwest Atlantic in the next couple weeks off of an old front or trough (Figure 5).

In particular, EC-AIFS (both the deterministic and ensemble versions) have been enthusiastic about a Gulf storm developing in 5-7 days and potentially affecting the Northern Gulf Coast (Figure 6).

The environment looks marginal for development in the Gulf. There’s some northerly shear for the system to deal with initially (Figure 7), and it may just get strung out ahead of the trough over the Eastern US. In order to get development, we’d probably need to see a disturbance sit out over the warm Gulf waters for several days. We’ll keep an eye on the possibility throughout the week.