Northern Hemisphere TC Season Winding Down: AI Models Discussion 11-14-2025

After Typhoon Fung-Wong dissipated near Taiwan earlier this week, the tropics are generally slumbering as we transition deeper into the Northern Hemisphere fall. The Atlantic and East Pacific remain quiet, and models don’t suggest any activity in the next 7-10 days. It’s looking likely that we’ll reach the official November 30 end of the 2025 hurricane season without any further activity, though of course we will have to watch for stray activity in the Atlantic subtropics.

It’s also possible that we could see the Southern Hemisphere start to perk up with DeepMind hinting at some activity near Australia in about a week or so (Figure 1).

Waters are very warm here and tropical low pressure is favored in the Maritime Continent region (Figure 2), thanks to a maturing La Niña signature in the Pacific.

The other possible location for some activity in the longer range is the West Pacific and Eastern Indian Ocean (Figure 3). This would make sense with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) forecast to move through the region, so we will see if the signal picks up in the medium range.

Something else to watch with the MJO moving into the Pacific is the possibility of a “Westerly Wind Burst” across the Equatorial Pacific, with the trade winds weakening and reversing. AI models are hinting at this possibility in the medium range (Figure 4). Such WWBs, particularly if they extend to the dateline or beyond, can help flip ENSO by initiating downwelling oceanic Kelvin Waves which warm the subsurface tropical Pacific. It’s possible this MJO event will be a part of helping to slowly wind down this cool ENSO event and start the Pacific on a path towards an El Niño this year, but it’s a little early to say for sure.