More West and Central Pacific action; will the Atlantic wake up? AI Models Discussion 8-20-2026

We’ll go around the globe for our AI models discussion on tropical cyclones today, and look at the ongoing and potential activity in several major basins.

West Pacific

The West Pacific remains very busy, with enhanced activity in the Eastern part of the basin as expected with a strong ongoing El Niño. The next major system to watch is Tropical Storm Saudel, which is to the Southeast of the Mariana Islands and forecast to move towards the northwest and then west, intensifying significantly as it does so (Figure 1).

The upper-level environment looks very favorable for intensification as the system moves off to the west, so it would not be a surprise to see a potential Supertyphoon from this system. It’s still too early to determine exactly what the impacts will be in the Marianas, which are still recovering from Typhoons Sinlaku and Bavi earlier this year. Hopefully, most of the intensification will occur after the storm passes through. The only major limiting factor will be the cold wake left by Typhoon Dolphin to the South of Japan.

In the medium range, the track will largely depend on the strength, orientation, and position of a ridge of high pressure to the North (Figure 3). Folks in Taiwan, China, Japan, and Korea should all keep an eye on this system. Other than Saudel, models indicate there will be other potential candidates for development in the next two weeks as well (Figure 1).

East/Central Pacific

The Central Pacific remains busy after Lala impacted Hawaii. Another system (Invest 90E) is developing to the Southeast of the islands and moving towards the northwest. Currently, model guidance is keeping this one south of Hawaii (Figure 4), but this will definitely be something to monitor.

Currently, most models are not showing much intensification from this system for the next few days, due to some southerly shear as well as dry air wrapping into the circulation (Figure 5). Once it gets further west, the environment might become more favorable for intensification.

It also looks like the East Pacific will be waking up, with a strong signal for a TC to develop over the open waters West of Mexico (Figure 4). At this point, this one doesn’t look to be a land threat, but it will be worth watching as it moves West/Northwest.

Atlantic

The Atlantic is still quiet for now. Models are starting to hint that a wave moving off of Africa in a few days could develop as it moves west across the Atlantic Main Development Region (Figure 6).

The Atlantic is generally still dominated by subsidence and high pressure (Figure 7) due to the ongoing El Niño, but we are approaching the climatological peak of the season, so it’s worth watching these waves as they come West.

There is still a lot of westerly shear across parts of the Atlantic, especially the Caribbean, thanks to the El Niño. It does look like there could be a brief window with a break in the shear to the north of the Antilles late next week (Figure 8), which could allow for some intensification if a TC is able to develop in the MDR and move West-northwest.

We’ll monitor how all of these systems evolve and be back with another update soon!