Lala Approaches Hawaii, Atlantic Looks Hostile: AI Models Discussion 8-14-2026
East/Central Pacific
We’ll start off today in the East and Central Pacific, where we have two systems active. Tropical Storm Hernan is meandering around in the open waters of the East Pacific, and forecast to dissipate soon. A bigger concern is Tropical Storm Lala over the Central Pacific, which is moving towards the Hawaiian Islands (Figure 1).
Lala is intensifying, but has been fairly slow to do so, partially due to some dry air wrapping around the north and west sides of the circulation (Figure 2). Despite this dry air, the system will still likely be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane when it passes near or over the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday/Sunday. Folks in Hawaii should listen to local authorities and check out the National Hurricane Center advisories for the latest information.
Behind Lala, models indicate that there could be another system or two forming in the East and Central Pacific in the next couple weeks (Figure 3), though it’s still a little early to tell where it might form or go.
West Pacific
There are a few weak systems and invests active in the West Pacific, but nothing strong at this point. Google DeepMind (Figure 4) does suggest that the basin will stay active, with the chance for another strong typhoon to develop in the general vicinity of the Mariana Islands.
The overall environment in the West Pacific will continue to support development, with an active monsoon trough and large area of cyclonic vorticity (Figure 5). It’s too early to say exactly which areas will be favored for development, but activity looks to continue in the coming weeks.
Atlantic
Despite showing some signs of waking up earlier this week, the Atlantic still remains generally quiet. The two current invests, 92L and 94L in the Central Atlantic, are both struggling to produce convection due to dry, stable air, and models have mostly backed off of any development of these systems (Figure 6).
In some years, waves like this can develop further west in the Gulf or Caribbean, but this year a strong TUTT near the Caribbean Islands (a classic El Niño signature) will make it difficult for these systems to survive further west (Figure 7). We’ll see if anything can “break through” to find a favorable window, but right now most models are not showing any indication of that in the short term.
We’ll keep an eye on things and be back with an update next week!