Dolphin Moving Across the West Pacific, Fausto and Genevieve Spinning Down: AI Models Discussion 7-29-2026

Today we’ll take a look at TC activity across the globe, once again focused mostly on the Pacific where most of the activity continues due to El Niño.

West Pacific

The main system of interest in the West Pacific is Typhoon Dolphin. It is currently intensifying after an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday, and will likely remain a powerful typhoon for many days across the warm waters of the Northwest Pacific. The current track forecast brings it west-northwest, followed by a potential bend back to the west (Figure 1).

The bend back to the west is driven by a ridge developing to the north of the TC, centered over the Sea of Japan (Figure 2). The exact strength and positioning of this ridge will be critical for determining whether the TC tracks towards Southern Japan, Korea, or Northeast China. This will be something to monitor in the coming days.

Behind Dolphin, it looks like a strong monsoon trough will develop across the region, partially driven by an MJO pulse moving back into the Pacific. This will lead to a large area of westerly flow (Figure 3), and could result in the spinup of one or more new TCs, though details are unclear right now.

East Pacific

The East Pacific is finishing up a period of increased activity. Fausto has dissipated north of Hawaii, and Genevieve is slowly decaying over the waters of the open East Pacific. Behind these two storms, there is some signal for an East or Central Pacific storm in the medium range (Figure 4).

This potential genesis looks to be driven by a breakdown of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), with weaker trades or even westerlies along the equator (Figure 5) thanks to the ongoing El Niño event. It’s still a ways out, but this system could be worth watching in the Central Pacific, including Hawaii.

Further east in the East Pacific, the upper level winds look less favorable for development (Figure 6), with northwest winds at upper levels. This is probably due at least in part to outflow from the convection further west. This is a typical pattern for El Niño events, with development shifted west in the Eastern Pacific.

Atlantic

The Atlantic continues to be very quiet. Ensembles show just a weak signal for any possible development over the next 2 weeks (Figure 7).

The only real candidate for development is likely from a “trough split” breaking off of a trough over the Central Atlantic, and moving west under an upper level ridge with more favorable easterly upper-level winds, north of the strong westerlies dominating the Caribbean due to El Niño (Figure 8). This may be what a few ensemble members are showing in the West Atlantic. However, this is still a ways out, and shear and dry air will be an obstacle to any development.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on things and be back with another update soon!