Atlantic Quiet After Isaias, Pacific Stays Busy: AI Models Discussion 10-12-2026

We’ll take a look around the global tropics at several ongoing and potential systems.

Atlantic

In the wake of Isaias, the Atlantic looks quiet again. Models suggest a slight signal for some potential development in the subtropics over the next two weeks (Figure 1), but nothing robust.

Regardless of any potential TC development, it looks like there could be impactful weather along the Eastern Seaboard. With high pressure behind a cold front to the north, and lower pressure to the south, there will be strong East/Northeast winds along parts of the East Coast, including Florida (Figure 2). This could lead to some coastal flooding issues and will be worth watching.

East Pacific

The East Pacific remains very busy. Simon is moving just offshore of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, and is forecast to move north into the coast of Mexico. Behind Simon, 93E is moving west to the south of Mexico and has the potential to intensify significantly and also threaten the coast of Mexico (Figure 3).

The environment looks favorable for intensification, with a large anticyclone overhead and a trough to the northwest that should also aid outflow as it picks up the storm in a few days (Figure 4).

The 1000-member Google DeepMind ensemble forecast (Figure 5) shows TCG genesis within 24-48 hours, and a median peak intensity of Category 4 on the ensemble. There is a fairly large track spread still, with some members hitting mainland Mexico quickly and others moving further up the coast. This will be a trend to monitor over the next several days.

West Pacific

The West Pacific also appears to be heating up. Invest 96W is located around 160E, and is moving to the west. It is forecast to intensify into a strong Typhoon as it crosses the Mariana Islands and moves west-northwest (Figure 6).

96W is currently battling some easterly shear, but the environment looks to get more favorable as it moves west, with an anticyclone overhead and both poleward and equatorward outflow channels (Figure 7). The timing of intensification will be important to monitor, as the TC will likely be moving through the southern Mariana Islands (near Guam and Saipan) as it intensifies. Earlier intensification could result in a significant impact to one or more of the islands.

In the medium-range, the track will be determined by the strength of a mid-level ridge and how quickly it erodes on the western flank (Figure 8). This will be something to monitor for Japan and other parts of Eastern Asia.

We will keep monitoring these systems and be back with another update soon!