95W Looks Like a Long-Track Typhoon Threat: AI Models Discussion 6-29-2026

Today we’ll focus most of our attention on the West Pacific, since models have backed off of any development in the Atlantic off the SE coast (too much dry air), and are currently only showing a potential signal for a brief, weak TC in the East Pacific (Figure 1).

West Pacific

The West Pacific remains active, with two systems to watch, 95W and 96W. Models show a fairly strong signal for both of these systems to develop (Figure 2).

96W is currently located near the Philippines. It seems likely to turn into a TC and move across the South China Sea and turn towards Southern China. Right now most models indicate that it won’t strengthen significantly, though there is a small percentage of the 1000-member Google DeepMind ensemble that shows a stronger typhoon (Figure 3).

The turn north will happen as a result of a trough moving across China. The jet streak associated with this trough could enhance the outflow of the storm as it approaches the coast (Figure 4), so we should watch for some sneaky intensification if it is able to form a robust inner core over the South China Sea.

The system of most concern is 95W. It has been slow to consolidate so far, with a large area of convection in the ITCZ near 170E (see the cover image from www.cyclonicwx.com/interactive). Models are very consistent that it should start to organize and develop into a powerful typhoon. One of the first concerns is how much it intensifies before it reaches the Mariana Islands in 5-6 days. Google DeepMind suggests it could become an extremely powerful typhoon by that time (Figure 5), with most members suggesting a Category 4-5 equivalent intensity.

The environment near the TC looks like it will be very favorable for rapid intensification around that time, with ridging to the north and multiple upper-level outflow channels (Figure 6). I would expect a period of rapid pressure falls, and the Mariana Islands should be prepared for the possibility of a large and powerful typhoon moving through this weekend or early next week.

As might be expected, there is a large long-range track spread with 95W, with a lot of uncertainty as to whether it will approach Taiwan, mainland China, or recurve towards Japan. The key steering factors will be the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north and east of the TC (Figure 7), along with the timing of troughs moving off of Asia. This will be important to monitor over the coming week or so for potential impacts later next week.

We’ll see how 95W and 96W evolve in the next few days and provide another update later this week!