07W Moving West, Pacific Looks to Remain Active

West Pacific

The West Pacific is by far the most active basin globally at the moment. TD 07W formed to the west of the Mariana Islands, and is moving to the west. Google DeepMind continues to suggest this system will have a chance to intensify significantly as it moves west to the east of the Philippines (Figure 1).

The 1000-member DeepMind ensemble also has the same idea, with a gradual recurve just east of Taiwan and towards Southern Japan, with the TC peaking in intensity around 20N and then weakening as it begins to recurve (Figure 2).

One thing that will be interesting to monitor is the TC’s structure. DeepMind is suggesting that it could form a very small core, with a median RMW from the model of less than 10 nmi (Figure 3). DeepMind is one of the first AI models to attempt to predict storm structure, so this is something that will be interesting to monitor.

The weakening in the medium range is likely due to increased shear as the TC interacts with the mid-latitude westerlies (Figure 4). As a result, it should be notably weaker by the time it approaches Japan, and probably undergoing extratropical transition. It’s still a potential threat to monitor, though.

There is another system behind 07W, 93W, that also has a chance to develop as it moves off to the west (Figure 1). This could be something to monitor in the Philippines down the line. The Pacific monsoon trough looks to remain active, with a strong westerly wind burst over much of the region (Figure 5), part of the growing El Niño circulation. This could lead to the development of another 1-2 cyclones in the 1-2 week range, as the expected active West Pacific begins to take shape.

East Pacific

The East Pacific is quiet at the moment. There is some indication of development in the medium range from Google DeepMind (Figure 6).

The likely seeds for development would come from the monsoon trough (Figure 7), particularly as tropical waves move across Central America and provide an extra source of vorticity. This is still a little ways out, but something to keep an eye on.

Atlantic

The Atlantic looks very quiet after Arthur dissipated inland, with no candidates for development in the short to medium range, and long-range models show a strong tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) dominating the Caribbean and Southwest Atlantic with strong westerly upper-level winds, a hallmark of El Niño (Figure 8).